Hi Friends 👋🏾

Welcome to all the new members who’ve joined The Green Room since last Thursday! If you haven’t subscribed, join our community of business travelers and perpetual learners by subscribing here:

Have a friend who can benefit from our coverage of leading business conferences? If so, click the button below! Thanks for sharing.

Future planning

Let’s dive in…

We took a pause last week to be with family. I know the world is full of heartache and pain; however, for the sake of yourself and those who love you I hope you can create regular spaces to practice gratitude and revel in love.

We’ve been having conversations across the Conference and Live Events ecosystem. I’m reminded of a conversation we recently had with a sponsor. One thing that is most important to them is managing and protecting against risks. This idea resonated with me, particularly as a small startup, because the fact of the matter is that it’s hard to see around corners. You have to prepare your strategy and even act as a futurist, as Amy Webb suggests, and scenario plan for the possibilities.

To help you scenario plan and strategize for the year ahead, we are diving into the Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo Barcelona. Daryl Plummer, Gartner Distinguished VP Analyst, gives us the seven disruptions we may not see coming. While the conference is mainly for CIOs and IT executives, I do think many of the topics raised will impact us regardless of the industry or the role we operate in. And if you are a founder, you likely are also your company’s default CIO so this is definitely for you too.

In that same vein, will you help us scenario plan? As we finalize our strategy for this newsletter for the year ahead, we want to make sure your voices are front and center. We would love to set up 1:1 calls with as many of you who are open to sharing your perspectives on the newsletter, the content, and the utility that would be most helpful and impactful for you for the next year. Are you open to chatting with us? Let us know below, and we’ll reach out to schedule some time.

Enjoy,

Amy & Bryan

Zoom Out: Gartner’s IT Symposium/Xpo Barcelona

Earlier this month, CIOs and IT executives descended upon Barcelona, Spain, to engage in one of Gartner’s many signature events.

Gartner is a research and consulting firm delivering actionable, objective insight to executives and their teams. They hold over 25 conferences that serve over 60,000 business and technology professionals annually.

The IT Symposium/XPO in Barcelona is one of 11 others catered toward that particular demographic. The 2023 theme was ‘ the next era of possibility.’ Over 3 days, attendees dipped into the 350+ sessions and three robust tracks, including:

• Future Directions

• Strategies for Success

• Critical Execution

Executives attend to validate their strategies, engage in peer discussions and consultations with Gartner experts, and benchmark ideas. If you’re trying to pull up to the IT Symposium/XPO in Barcelona next November 4th – 7th, it will run you (or your org) from $4,800-$6,300 euros.

Zoom in: 7 Disruptions You Might Not See Coming: 2023-2028 with Daryl Plummer

Daryl is one of the co-leads of Gartner Futures Lab, which specializes in looking around corners to see what’s coming next.

First, during his talk, he defines a disruption as something that causes a fundamental shift in a given system. Unlike a fad, a disruption causes a permanent change unless there is something bigger that comes along to disrupt it (i.e., the internet).

Then he lays out the metrics for measuring the intensity of a disruption. Here are the levels:

Last, he dives into the seven disruptions. His talk will help you:

1. Consider how these disruptions may implicate you, your role, and your organization.

2. Strategize for the years ahead to stay ahead of these disruptions.

3. See how Generative AI is the impetus for many of the disruptions.

Moonshots, space rockets and solar flares (Disruption #5 may particularly pique your interest)…

Disruption #1: What if Geomagnetic storms knocked out your internet access?

Disruption Magnitude: Enhance (1)

Solar flares can cause all sorts of other disruptions:

• In 1989, a solar flare hit Canada and took out Hydro Québec for over 9 hours. Hydro Québec is a leading supplier of electricity that prioritizes the use of clean and renewable energy.

• In 2012 a solar flare took out a NASA satellite orbiting the sun.

• In 1967 a solar flare hit which took out the electrical grid and nearly intensified the Cold War: all three of the Air Force's Ballistic Missile Early Warning System radar sites in the far Northern Hemisphere appeared to be jammed. Air Force officials assumed it was the Soviet Union but quickly learned it was the result of a powerful solar flare.

Why this should matter to you:

• July 2025 is when the next wave of solar flares is expected to erupt

• This could take down satellites which would heavily impact our communications infrastructure.

What would be disrupted:

• Hardening of systems so they are less fragile to this phenomenon

• “Ability to increase the mean time between failure of systems and the impact of electrical discharge in the atmosphere. Because literally, a large solar flare will cause you to see sparks emanating from one person to another.”

• Physical locations of sensitive electronics

• Consumer device design

• Global communications

By 2028 it’s likely that a solar flare could transform markets because we have to find new ways to deliver technology that isn't vulnerable to it.

The takeaway: Create an existential threat list for IT infrastructure disrupted by geomagnetic storm increases.

Disruption #2: What if AI can minimize legacy code?

Disruption Magnitude: Extend (2): Google's Vertex AI, & Microsoft Copilot are examples of products that are currently helping developers modernize applications.

Why this should matter to you:

• AI can help us modernize legacy systems without disruption.

• AI can describe the code that you have, and it can tell you code that doesn't have documentation anymore.

• COBOL programmers are retiring and in some cases, they didn't document their work very well.

• AI can support with designing the best type of user experience based on the desired outcomes of the technology.

What would be disrupted:

• Opportunity costs of legacy code

• Developer productivity

• Citizen development availability

• Code library governance

• Security risks during conversion

• Definition of coding languages and skills

By 2028 this disruption could reach levels of transforming or reinventing markets because we likely will need to change the way we do development or stop doing development altogether.

The takeaway:

• Expand beyond data scientists and hire and retain code philosophers – people who have a philosophy about how AI understands what we're asking for.

• Hire prompt engineers and develop a prompt management discipline.

Disruption #3: Will we limit AI evolution?

Disruption Magnitude: Enhance (1)

Why this should matter to you:

• We have to worry about what the laws are to protect our IP.

• Regulation will slow down the adoption pace of AI just a bit and allow time for regulators to keep up.

• Regulators should leverage AI to solve the problems associated with AI: “Regulations will be able to be created, envisioned by AI, created by AI, and vetted by AI.”

• AI needs to be able to recognize when bias is happening

What would be disrupted:

• Tech providers will go to market based on what they're allowed to do and what they're not allowed to do.

• Markets will converge based on regulations crossing domains

• Practices for de-risking business continuity.

The takeaway:

• Assess where regulation will come first and how that will impact your business (e.g., financial services).

• Explore which markets are related to one another and the regulation that controls them.

Disruption #4: What if older workers become more productive than younger ones?

Disruption Magnitude: Enhance (1)

Why this should matter to you:

• By devaluing older workers, “we give away one of the best assets we have.”

• Retirement age goes up, the work week goes down.

• Certain college degrees could no longer be necessary because AI can support an “uneducated” person just as much as an “educated” one.

• Talent crunch makes it hard to find people, so keep the ones you have for a longer period of time.

What would be disrupted:

• Talent management

• Retirement age

• Work-week hours

• Worker augmentation

• Digital charisma

By 2028 this disruption would only extend markets because the stigma around the elderly is strong and pervasive.

The takeaway:

• Orient compensation over a longer life cycle of work.

• Modify recruiting efforts to incent older workers.

• Experiment with part-time work models (e.g., the three-day week).

Disruption #5: What if conservative companies take “moonshots” through “techquisitions”?

Disruption Magnitude: Enhance (1)

Why this should matter to you:

• Boards are increasing their tolerance risk for startup acquisitions.

• Startups are having a hard time finding funding, and acquisitions could be the move vs. the VC path we’ve seen over the past decade or so.

• Coffey Bruce, the CFO of General Mills, said, “We may be able to leverage the money that we have, which startups can't get, and maybe some of those startups on sale we will buy. It's a techquisition, a tech startup bought to bring in a whole new base of business. And if we do that, we may be able to leapfrog some of the leaders in our industry and get there before we would have otherwise.”

• Valuations have been/are being depressed depending on the industry. Jason Lemkin mentioned this reality during the Saastr conference.

What would be disrupted:

• The pool of available startups is going to go down over time

• Innovation balance between startups and existing companies

• Industry rankings of companies

• The route to market for tech startups could change where VC is only one type of funder you consider, but you also consider the bigger brands that could acquire you.

By 2028 this disruption could extend and perhaps transform markets. It could move fast; however, the reason why this doesn't move very fast or far is because conservative companies are conservative. They get scared very quickly. They're like governments in that regard.

The takeaway:

• Aggressively evaluate which tech companies are interesting to you. Start looking at them as an asset to be mined.

• If you are a CIO or working in tech, you should be the sponsor of these “techquisitions” because if it works, you get a raise or the responsibility to make it work.

• Acquire “techquisitions” to differentiate your digital foundation, making you a stronger digital company, and let you transform to digital.

• As a startup, begin considering who would be the ideal buyer of your entity. Who has the cash but not enough knowledge of what to do with it. Position yourself to be an asset to acquire.

Disruption #6: The expedient pace of engineering innovation

Disruption Magnitude: Transform (3)

Why this should matter to you:

• Companies like SpaceX are running through catastrophic failures in order to test, learn and innovate faster.

• They’ve started to avoid patents in an effort to keep the momentum of trial and error.

• SpaceX has increased its pace of delivery for space vehicles dramatically since 2002.

• NASA is no longer the only trusted source for sending crafts into space.

What would be disrupted:

• Engineering discipline and bureaucracy is going away.

• The innovation pace is going up.

• Holding a nuclear reactor that's safe in the palm of your hand.

• The cost of engineering of this kind will significantly decrease within ten years.

• The route to market for tech startups could change where VC is only one type of funder you consider, but you also consider the bigger brands that could acquire you.

By 2028 this disruption could ultimately revolutionize markets. Daryl claims he’ll be second in line once commercial travel to space is widely available.

The takeaway:

• Empower rapid development across virtual and physical worlds

• Shrink the time between run, test, and run.

Disruption #7: What if the space race restarted?

Disruption Magnitude: Enhance (1)

Why this should matter to you:

• Generative AI is improving resource identification where a country that might not have been important in space technology becomes important because they have resources that are necessary for space technology.

• Lower payload costs are leading to an increased space race with satellites.

• New territories and resources can be claimed now because of space technology

What would be disrupted:

• There will be an innovation ripple effect across industries.

• Geopolitical resource & supply chain competition

• Supply chain security

• High-tech skills distribution and acquisition

By 2028 this disruption could be reinventing everything. Quantum computing will go to space. Server farms will go to space. New processes to create new drugs and new techniques will be in space.

The takeaway:

• Establish a transfer discipline of technology from space-related capabilities to our day-to-day businesses.

• Deliver your innovation externally to support others.

Serendipitous collisions in the hallway

• Just window-shopping and boppin

• History was made in France, and this is ridiculous.

• Harry wanted to know, “What Happens Now in AI”

Hey, let’s work together. 👋

1. 📈 Looking for design sprints around sales, revenue, and community growth? If so, our agency, Marble Design, is a leader in the space. We help design programs and systems for leading companies and startups in a way that’s equitable and human-centered. Learn more here and book a call to get going.

2. 💰 Looking for $500K or more of sponsor dollars for an upcoming conference? We have a proprietary database of over 10,000 brand sponsors looking to partner with high-aligned community builders and conference organizers. Get in touch if we can help connect the dots.

3. 💚 Work with the Green Room. Do you love learning, traveling, going to conferences, and building community? Us too! Reach out if you’re interested in working with us as a community ambassador or writer!